Baseline Scenario
A hypothetical projection of what greenhouse gas emissions or removals would have been without a specific project or policy.
What is a Baseline Scenario?
A baseline scenario, in the context of carbon projects, is a hypothetical projection of the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that would have occurred, or the GHG removals that would not have occurred, in the absence of the proposed project activity. It serves as a reference point against which the emission reductions or removals achieved by the project are measured.
Why is a Baseline Scenario important?
The baseline scenario is critical for determining the 'additionality' and quantifying the actual climate benefit of a carbon project. Without a clear and credible baseline, it's impossible to know if the project is genuinely reducing emissions beyond business-as-usual or simply taking credit for actions that would have happened anyway.
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Frequently asked questions
Establishing a baseline scenario typically involves analyzing historical data, industry trends, regulatory requirements, technological availability, and economic factors to predict future emissions or removals in the absence of the project.
Yes, baselines can be dynamic and may need to be updated during a project's crediting period to reflect significant changes in circumstances, such as new regulations, technological advancements, or shifts in market conditions.
An inaccurate baseline scenario can lead to over-crediting or under-crediting of carbon emissions, undermining the environmental integrity of the project and the credibility of the carbon credits issued.